New Poll Shows Ossoff Leading Collins in Georgia Senate Race
A new statewide poll shows Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff leading Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins by eight percentage points as Georgia approaches the November 3 midterm election, with Black voters, women and younger Georgians representing important segments of the incumbent’s support.
The survey, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, found that nearly 48% of likely voters support Ossoff, compared with 40% who favor Collins. Approximately 12% remain undecided.
The results, released Wednesday, October 21, provide a snapshot of voter preferences in one of the nation’s closely watched U.S. Senate contests.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Georgia voters by telephone between October 7 and October 15 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Ossoff, an Atlanta Democrat seeking a second term, is defending the Senate seat he won in Georgia’s historic 2021 runoff elections. Collins, a Republican congressman, is seeking to unseat him as both parties compete for control of the Senate.
The latest findings illustrate the political divisions shaping the race.
According to the survey, Ossoff draws particularly strong support from Black voters, women, younger adults and college-educated respondents. Collins performs more strongly among white voters, residents age 65 and older, and voters without college degrees.
Among male voters, the candidates were tied at 43% each.
The survey also found differences based on political identification. Collins received support from 77% of self-described conservatives, while Ossoff was supported by 90% of liberals and 62% of moderates.
Those findings underscore the importance of Georgia’s diverse electorate, where differences in age, race, education and political affiliation continue to shape statewide contests.
Black voters have played a significant role in Georgia’s recent electoral history, particularly in metropolitan Atlanta and other population centers across the state.
Their participation was an important factor in the 2020 presidential election and the subsequent Senate runoff elections, which brought Ossoff and fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock to Washington.
In the current race, the new survey identifies Black voters as one of Ossoff’s strongest supporting groups, although it does not establish how many voters in any demographic group will ultimately participate on Election Day.
Beyond candidate preferences, the poll measured attitudes toward Ossoff’s performance in office.
Approximately 55% of respondents said they approve of his work as senator, while 35% expressed disapproval. Among independent voters, 61% reported a favorable assessment of his job performance.
Those findings offer additional context for a race in which both candidates are seeking to distinguish themselves on economic policy, healthcare, immigration and the federal government’s direction.
Ossoff has emphasized healthcare affordability and economic concerns while criticizing several Trump administration policies. Collins has aligned himself with the administration’s priorities, including immigration enforcement and Republican approaches to federal spending and taxation.
The campaigns have also differed in their responses to the latest polling.
Collins campaign spokesperson Nick Siegfried dismissed the significance of the survey, emphasizing that the election itself, rather than public opinion polling, will determine the result. The campaign has continued presenting Collins as a candidate focused on reaching voters throughout the state.
The broader campaign has attracted national attention because Georgia has become a competitive political state in recent election cycles.
President Donald Trump carried Georgia in the 2024 presidential election, two years after voters reelected Warnock to the Senate. Those differing outcomes demonstrate that statewide results can vary considerably depending on the candidates, political environment and electorate participating in a particular election.
The AJC survey also comes as Georgia voters are already casting ballots during the state’s early voting period.
While the poll shows an eight-point difference between the candidates, it remains a measurement of voter preferences during a specific period rather than a prediction of the final outcome.
The approximately 12% of respondents who remain undecided also represents a meaningful portion of the surveyed electorate. Their eventual choices, along with participation among supporters of both candidates, will affect the final results.
For Atlanta and communities across Georgia, the Senate contest carries implications for federal decisions involving healthcare, employment, education, housing and voting rights.
Those issues are particularly relevant in a state where residents continue to confront rising household costs, disparities in access to healthcare and ongoing debates over election policy.
With less than two weeks remaining before Election Day, the new survey offers a clearer picture of where the candidates stood in mid-October, while leaving the final decision to Georgia voters on November 3.
