A recent poll conducted by The Washington Post/Ipsos has shed light on a concerning trend: fewer Black Americans are certain to vote in the upcoming 2024 election compared to 2020.
This decline in voter certainty among this key demographic poses significant challenges for President Joe Biden and underscores the need for targeted efforts to re-engage and mobilize Black voters ahead of the upcoming election.
According to the poll, conducted between April 9 and April 16, only 62% of Black Americans expressed certainty to vote in this year’s election, marking a 12-percentage point decrease from June 2020, where 74% were certain to vote. Alarmingly, the decline is even more pronounced among young Black Americans aged 18-39, with only 41% certain to vote compared to 61% in June 2020.
LaTosha Brown, a community organizer, political strategist, consultant and co-founder of voting rights organization Black Voters Matter, addressed the factors contributing to this decline in certainty. Outlining key steps needed to re-engage and mobilize Black voters.
“Several factors have contributed to the decrease in Black Americans’ certainty to vote in this year’s election compared to 2020. First, the economic recovery has been uneven, with many Black Americans still struggling with job loss and economic insecurity,” Brown said. “Additionally, concerns about voting rights and access have increased, with new laws in some states potentially restricting access to the ballot. There is also disillusionment with both major parties, as many Black voters feel that their needs and concerns are not adequately addressed. You also have voter fatigue after two historic elections in 2020, with some feeling less urgency to vote in 2024.”
She added: “To get Black voters enthused ahead of the election, several key steps are needed. First, candidates and parties need to authentically engage with Black communities year-round, not just during election seasons. At Black Voters Matter we do this work 365. This includes listening to concerns, building trust, and showing up consistently. Voter education and protection efforts are also critical, ensuring that Black voters have the information and support they need to cast their ballots. Additionally, highlighting policies that directly benefit Black communities can motivate turnout. Finally, creating a sense of collective power and emphasizing the importance of every vote in transforming our communities.”
Furthermore, while Biden enjoyed overwhelming support from Black Americans in 2020, with 92% of the vote, the poll revealed a decrease in support, with 74% indicating they would definitely or probably vote for Biden in the 2024 election.
Notably, there has been a slight increase in support for former President Donald Trump among Black Americans, with 14% indicating they would definitely or probably vote for him in 2024 compared to 8% in 2016 and 12% in 2020.
In response to the decline in support for President Biden and the increase in support for Trump, Brown stressed the importance of addressing factors that matter most to the Black vote.
“To re-engage and mobilize Black voters, strategies need to address both the reasons for decreased support and the opportunities for growth. This includes directly addressing economic concerns with specific policies, such as job creation and economic empowerment programs,” Brown said. “Voting rights must be protected and expanded, with strong opposition to restrictive laws. Candidates and parties need to authentically court Black voters and show that their concerns are important to the political agenda.”
Furthermore, Brown outlined the invaluable work and actions that Black Voters Matter takes to support and foster healthy voting ideals for Black Americans.
“We firmly believe in the power of the vote and the importance of issue-based advocacy. We recognize that systemic change requires a focused and strategic approach. That’s why we prioritize educating voters about the issues that directly impact their lives and communities,” Brown explained. “By focusing on key policy areas like voting rights, criminal justice reform, economic empowerment, and health care access, we can mobilize the Black vote and create lasting political change.”
As the 2024 election approaches, the findings of this poll underscore the urgent need for targeted efforts to ensure robust voter turnout among Black Americans and uphold the integrity of our democracy.
“Our issue-based approach allows us to build powerful coalitions and amplify the voices of Black voters. It’s through this focused lens that we can reclaim our democracy and win the change we deserve,” Brown said.
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