URGENT: SPLC Report Finds 24 Million Outstanding Mail-In Ballots; Officials Urge Americans Should Return Absentee Ballots Directly to Drop Boxes or Election Officials, or Vote In-Person
With hostile court decisions, voters should only use official drop boxes, drop ballots off at their election offices or polling places, or choose in-person voting options for final days of election season
A new analysis released today by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) finds that while nearly 80 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting, another 24 million people have an outstanding mail ballot that they have not returned.
Amidst a series of court decisions threatening to not count ballots arriving after November 3 in the mail and corresponding USPS delays, there is the potential for hundreds of thousands to millions of votes arriving late and not being counted.
“On the eve of Election Day, we’re urging voters who have not returned their ballots to submit them through official drop boxes where available or in-person to election offices. It’s highly unlikely that they’ll be received in time to be counted if mailed. Voters can also surrender their absentee ballot and vote in-person on Tuesday as is their right,” said Seth Levi, Chief Strategy Officer for the SPLC. “Voters who have already returned their ballot should check to confirm it was received. If it hasn’t been received, they can and should vote in-person on November 3.”
The analysis is a part of an ongoing data tracking and reporting project between BlueLabs Analytics and the SPLC to track requested and returned absentee ballots as well as early voting in the states that report these numbers. These numbers will be essential reference points as Election Night results begin to be reported, and the SPLC, allied groups, and election observers strive to ensure enough votes have been counted for an appropriate call to be made at presidential and statewide levels.
Currently, the SPLC projects at least one additional update of this kind before polls close November 3.
ADDITIONAL NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:
- As of November 1, just under 80 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting. Another 24 million people have an outstanding mail ballot. The number of people who have already voted by mail or early in-person represents 58.4% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election.
- Using modeled partisanship combined with party affiliation where it’s available, we can estimate that Democrats hold a 17.5% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 18.2% on 10/30). However, Republicans hold a 2.2% advantage among early in-person votes (up from 1.3% on 10/30). Democrats still have many more ballots outstanding by a margin of 14.8% (up from 14.5% on 10/30).
- Young voters’ share of votes cast continues to rise. Voters aged 18-29 now make up 11.1% of mail ballots cast (up from 10.5% on 10/30) and 11.8% of early in-person votes (up from 11.1% on 10/30). This trend has been consistent day-to-day for the last two weeks.
- Black voters continue to turn out at high rates for early in-person voting. Black voters are just 14.3% of registered voters nationally but make up 13.4% of early in-person votes cast (no change from 10/30).
- Latinx voters continue to make more use of voting by mail than early in-person voting. Latinx voters currently make up 10.0% of mail ballots cast (up from 9.7% on 10/30) and 8.4% of early in-person votes (up slightly from 8.3% on 10/30).
- The steady increase in vote share among first time voters has continued. 7.2% of mail ballots cast are from first time voters (up from 6.8% on 10/30) and 7.0% of early in-person votes (up from 6.5% on 10/30).
Georgia
- 1,143,119 voters in Georgia have cast their ballots by mail and 2,417,357 have voted early in-person. Another 339,356 voters have outstanding mail ballots. The total number of votes cast (both by mail and EIP) represents 86.5% of the total votes cast in Georgia in the 2016 general election.
- Modeled Democrats hold a 4.3% advantage over modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 4.5% on 10/30). Modeled Republicans hold a 14.5% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 13.9% on 10/30).
- Black voters currently make up 33.2% of mail ballots cast (down slightly from 33.3% on 10/30) and 29.5% of early in-person votes (down from 29.8% on 10/30), which is mostly keeping pace with share of registered voters (33.6%).
- Young voters’ vote share in Georgia continues to trend up. Voters aged 18-29 make up 9.9% of mail ballots cast (up from 9.1% on 10/30) and 13.8% of early in-person voters (up from 12.8% on 10/30).
- Young Latinx voters are continuing to turn out at higher rates than young voters in the state overall. Latinx voters under 40 are 38.8% of mail ballots cast by Latinx voters, compared to 19.2% among all voters under 40. Latinx voters under 40 are 48.6% of early in-person votes by Latinx voters, compared to 28.5% among all voters under 40.
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