Chicago Defender & WVON 2015 Mayoral Poll Results

 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
RESEARCH DESIGN:
 
 A poll of 1,003 Interviews amongst registered African American voters in the Chicago Mayoral Election on Tuesday, April 7, 2015. Data collection took place during the dates of March 25 – 26, 2015. The survey was conducted via Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews using a 60/40 mix of landline and cell phone users. The research targeted a statistical sampling of African American voters across the city wards of Chicago. The accuracy level of results is +/-3.2%.
In addition to the poll, a concurrent study consisting of 6 In-Depth Interviews amongst African American registered voters. The sample included two likely voters per candidate and one undecided. The interviews took place during the dates of March 28 – 29, 2015. The interviews were conducted by telephone and averaged 10 minutes in length.
The results presented in this report should be interpreted as a reflection of voter sentiment during the time of data collection. Results may change due to significant events that may occur before the actual election date.
This research was commissioned by WVON/Chicago Defender; analysis and data collection by C R Market Surveys /Solomon Group; sampling design by McKeon & Associates.
 
SUMMARY OF POLL RESULTS:
 Of those polled, 46% of African American voters would select Rahm Emanuel if the elections
were held today.

 
 
 
 
 
 
While Rahm shows the lead, there is a large percent of undecided voters (almost 20%). Results show that over 50% of the 46 years and older segment favor Rahm Emanuel; while Garcia shows strong support amongst the younger segments. The key is who is most likely to vote among the undecided.  Historically it has been older voters, making Rahm the more likely winner of this race.
 
 VOTER INTERVIEWS:
                                                                                                      
Supporters of Rahm Emmanuel:    
 Bettie B., a 66-year-old retiree in Chicago’s South Shore community, says Rahm’s “strong track record of running government” and his work with President Obama, “proves he is the strongest candidate for mayor.” She contends she is satisfied overall with Rahm’s performance as mayor, citing his work to increase the minimum wage, provide tuition for community college, and not increasing property taxes as some examples of helping Chicago. While she is mixed about the public school closings, she says they were “necessary choices” to move the city forward. When asked the reasons for not voting for Garcia, she states:
“All he (Garcia) talks about is the prior administration and fault what they do, but he has no platform or explanation for what to do different.”
_____________________________________________
 Lakeisha B., a 31-year-old single mother in Englewood, agrees. She recently attended a Southside debate between the two candidates and says that it was there that she began to switch her support to Rahm.
“There’s a lot I do not like about Rahm, but right now he is the best qualified to lead the city. Garcia doesn’t really have answers for how to get this city out of trouble. We’re facing pension reform, high crime and debt. That’s why I have to go with Rahm.”
Lakeisha also believes the run-off is good for the community. “I think after this election Rahm will think twice about taking the African American vote for granted. We can vote him in, and we can get him out.”
 
Supporters of Jesus “Chuy” Garcia:
 
For Tracie J., 39-year-old nurse in South Shore, the school closings is her key reason for choosing Garcia.
“What he (Rahm) doesn’t realize is that closing so many schools can destabilize a community. These schools have been a historical fixture for these communities, and now there’s a void. It’s just another example of how he’s out of touch with underserved communities.”
 She says that Garcia, in contrast, is from the community. “He’s one of us. I think he’ll better relate to what’s going on around here, and how these changes are really affecting people.”
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Daniel S., 22 on the west side says he also plans to vote for Garcia.
 
“Rahm’s plan is to make this a city for the rich and run poor blacks out to the suburbs. I think as a minority, Garcia would work for everybody. He will bring balance to the city.”
 When asked to speculate about voter turn-out within his age segment, Daniel says the reality is that some of his peers “are too caught up in their own problems, what they are going through. They’re not seeing how this election is really going to change things from them. So some don’t vote.”
_____________________________________________
Undecided:
 
Ricardo W, 31, in Chatham is undecided but is leaning towards Garcia. When asked why, he says, “I just don’t like Rahm. He has done many things that rub me the wrong way…like the red light cameras and school closings.”
 
However, he says that he needs more information about Garcia before making a final choice. “I don’t know a lot about him but I like that he’s a minority. I think he’ll be more for Black people.”
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Felicia B., 28, a graduate student in Hyde Park, is also undecided but says she sees merit in both candidates. “… Rahm is more qualified to bring new business and improve the economy. But Garcia will represent different kinds of people – rich, poor and minorities.” She says that both are equally important to run the city. She is hoping for another debate to help decide.
 
 
2015 MAYORAL POLL QUESTIONNAIRE
S1.    Which of the following best describes your race or ethnic background?
TERMINATE IF NOT AFRICAN AMERICAN
 
S2.          GENDER:         [ ] Male                       [ ] Female
 
 
S3.          Are you a registered voter?
 
[ ]        Yes      GOT TO Q1
[ ]        Is there anyone in your household registered to vote? IF NO, TERMINATE.
 
Q1.         If the election for Mayor of Chicago were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE)
 
[ ]        Rahm Emanuel
[ ]        Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
[ ]       Undecided
 
 
 

1. In which age category are you?

 
[ ]        18-30
[ ]        31-45
[ ]        46-60
[ ]        60+
 
 
 

 
FREQUENCY TABLES BY QUESTION:
 

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