California’s Central and Imperial valleys, for instance, Latinos tend to lean to the right.
“They’re largely responsible for Proposition 8 passing,” he says, referring to the ban on gay marriage. “They’re very conservative on social issues.”
While Republicans may not gain power where blacks have departed, blacks who have headed south will probably not be able to turn red states blue in the near future, says Herb Tyson of Tyson Innovative Government Relations Solutions in Washington, D.C.
The black migration “doesn’t help Democrats because the South is so heavily skewed Republican you would have to have a huge representation of African-Americans to make a difference statewide,” he Tyson says.
On the other hand, in cities such as Atlanta, the black population is so large that African-Americans relocated there from throughout the nation won’t change the political landscape. The Atlanta area now has the greatest number of blacks in the country outside of New York City. For years, Chicago held that distinction. Moreover, three-fourths of the 25 counties in which the black population rose most over the past decade are in the South.
In Texas, the black population grew by 22 percent, in part because of Hurricane Katrina refugees who relocated there permanently. With the Latino population also growing, by 42 percent, minorities could alter the political landscape that Republicans have controlled.
Meanwhile, five counties with the greatest number of blacks 10 years ago – Los Angeles County, Philadelphia County, Wayne (Detroit), Cook (Chicago) and Kings (New York City) – all lost African-Americans. Democratic pollster Ron Lester stresses that populations in northeastern states dropped overall but says he doesn’t expect that to have much political impact.
“The loss has been spread around,” Lester says. “It’s a lot of college-educated voters who are leaving.”
Lester also questions the notion that population declines in northern states will benefit Republicans in that region or nationally. “In places like New York, I don’t think that’s going to them help pick up a seat in Congress,” he says. “I think that right now, you have [43] members of the Congressional Black Caucus. When redistricting is over, you’ll have the same number.”
In the historically black District of Columbia, the African-American population decreased by 11.5 percent between 2000 and 2010. In contrast, the black population in nearby Charles County in Maryland doubled as African-Americans departed the District.
David Bositis, senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C., doesn’t expect the black population decrease to have a huge impact on the city’s political scene.
“By and large, white voters have almost always had a major say in D.C. politics, so the fact that D.C. is becoming less black isn’t really changing the politics,” Bositis says. “The exception is Marion Barry. He was the only politician in D.C. who was able to win without white support.” The former mayor is a City Council member.
Nationally, black movement away from cities will eventually give minorities more political clout in areas where they settle, Bositis says. He adds, though, that this phenomenon will take time because the black and Latino population is on average younger than the white population.
“Certainly in the future, it’s going to represent an advantage but not immediately because younger people are not as politically active as older people are, and the white population is getting quite old,” he says.
America’s Wire is an independent, non-profit news service run by the Maynard Institute for Journalism Education. America’s Wire is made possible by a grant from the W. K. Kellogg Foundation. For more information, visit www.americaswire.org or contact Michael K. Frisby at mike@frisbyassociates.com.
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